P R O C E S S I N G
SMASHING DEMAND
36 APRIL 2018
Rural economist Con Williams says the world is
eating more avocados because of their versatility,
trendiness and health benefits…and the opening
up of the Chinese market two months ago will
ensure the sector has a good chance of increasing
the industry’s value from $146m to $200m in the
next five years. “China has long been viewed as a
significant opportunity, even though many Chinese
palates are unfamiliar with the fruit,” Williams says.
“Consumption growth is expected to be driven
by the health angle, as food in Chinese culture
is viewed as ‘health first and nutrition second’,
which is the complete reverse of many Western
markets.” Currently the fresh domestic (32%) and
Australian market (56%) account for the lion’s share
of the crop. Australia accounts for around 80% of
export revenue, with Japan (4%), Singapore (2%),
Thailand (2%) and Korea (2%) being the other major
markets. Balancing the need to diversify from the
Australasian market longer-term and the current
shortage of supply in markets which offer lucrative
returns presents a tug-of-war for the sector. “This
will require some exporter discipline to strike the
right balance,” Williams says. Initial volumes into
China will be low and extra marketing costs will be
required to establish a profile and build the brand.
Williams says increasing supply requires significant
greenfield development - the Bay of Plenty now
accounts for 60% of the growing area and Northland
36% - with the majority of development set to happen
in Northland. While the economics of avocados
appear to stack up well, Williams says there are
many practicalities and challenges to consider. “The
horticulture sector is experiencing a high growth
phase, with avocados another example with strong
prospects. This is creating more diversity as land
owners look for more options to increase earnings
and make the most sustainable use of land.”
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In Chile for the signing, Chapman
says for the first time, New Zealand
will gain preferential access to
Japan - the world’s third largest economy
- with immediate kiwifruit tariff
reductions worth $26 million. “Kiwifruit
from Chile has had the advantage
in Japan until now, so this is really
good news for New Zealand horticulture,”
he says. “Apple tariffs will be
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BELTING
eliminated over 11 years and this will
put us on a level playing field with
Australia, which already has preferential
access to Japan. Horticulture is
growing and the world wants access
to our fruit and vegetables so the
signing of this trade deal is timely. If
the CPTPP went ahead without New
Zealand, the modelling estimates
a $183 million decline in our gross
domestic product (GDP). As it stands,
the deal’s worth to New Zealand is a
rise of between $1.2 and $4 billion in
GDP.” Chapman says the deal better
links it's to four of New Zealand’s
top 10 trading partners…Australia,
Japan, Singapore and Malaysia, which
account for 30% of New Zealand
goods that are exported. “For the first
time we have a trade agreement with
Canada, Mexico and Peru - in addition
to Japan - and the deal opens up markets
with a combined population of
480 million that consume just under a
third of New Zealand’s exports. This
deal will have both immediate and
long-term benefits for our horticulture
industry and opens up new markets
for our highly sought-after fruit and
vegetables.”
ACCESS TO
JAPAN BIG WIN FOR
HORTICULTURE
Access to Japan for New
Zealand fruit is one of the
big wins for horticulture
from the recent signing of
the Comprehensive and
Progressive Agreement
for Trans-Pacific (CPTPP),
Horticulture New Zealand
chief executive Mike
Chapman says.
New Zealand’s avocado sector is
ripe for growth and anticipating
new greenfield development
opportunities in the upper North
Island, the ANZ says.
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