fresh fruit ($35 million) and prepared foods ($30 million). And US foreign direct investment in the higher tech ends of the New Zealand food industry is growing, mainly driven by the quality of prion-free meat industry by-product available. Proliant recently invested in a blood plant, and Heinz-Wattie, Mars and Purina all have large pet food operations here. The future of trade with the US can expect to change under the Trump administration. The ending of the proposed Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement is an example of what to expect of Trump, although TPP was good for big US corporates. The philosophy of limiting global trade to focus on a greater reliance on domestic supplies in the US will mean international trade with the US will reduce. The prospect of other nations taking a similar approach may see more doors closing to international trade. For New Zealand, a country that relies on exports, this will be challenging. However our reputation for clean, green, sustainable, safe, high quality food production will help ensure that we maintain some trade of foods with the US. We have some particularly special products, such as chardonnay, that are revered in the US and demanded by discerning customers. Our reputation will also assist us in developing new markets for our food products. We have successfully navigated through the winds of change before. The influence that Brexit will have on NZ‘s food industry is not yet clear. The UK is still our fifth biggest trading partner. Potentially we could see more trade with the UK. This is somewhat going back to the future. What is clear is that we are a nation that has something to offer the world in food and the world will always need good quality food. We must be confident in the future of our international trade in food. Trump has also declared against climate change action. If he follows through here, and takes the pressure off other large emitters, this could have a bigger effect on the New Zealand food industry but over a longer period. We can expect more high rainfall events, rising temperatures and sea levels, and infestation by new pests. Our land is soft and easily eroded, and we will clearly face challenges in growing food. But others will be far worse off. Much of the world’s food is grown on river plains and near river deltas – these are at risk. Much more is grown on lands watered by rivers fed from the Tibetan plateau. This is predicted to rise dramatically in temperature as it loses the reflectivity that ice gives it – it might be only 50 years before it is dry. Trump may rule for only four years, but four more years of delay could mean 100 years of consequence. And Trump has declared against Washington institutions – he seems to dislike the elite that never really accepted him and this seems to have translated to dislike of some national institutions. The intelligence services have felt his ire. How does he view the FDA and USDA? One would expect that should his gaze fall upon them, he’d want to decrease regulation and allow ‘good ol’ US businesses some leeway. Given that much of the world takes it cue from the FDA, this will interesting to watch. We in New Zealand must be aware of change over which we have very little influence. Our ability to be flexible and responsive to change will ensure that we are in the best position for the future. 16 FEBRUARY 2017 Will it be ‘steady as she goes’ for New Zealand food manufacturers in the wake of the Trump inauguration? Katherine Rich, chief executive of the New Zealand Food and Grocery Council, predicts an “interesting time” for the food sector. As the saying goes, ‘May you live in interesting times’. The Trump presidency will certainly deliver interesting times for the food sector. The first blow was the symbolic firstday action of officially withdrawing from the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement. The United States was a key signatory and the major market within the Asia Pacific region. As Prime Minister Bill English recently commented, the United States has such a huge market that it can make a living selling goods to itself. New Zealand does not have that luxury, and our livelihood relies on our ability to trade and strike up positive relationships with as many countries as possible. Food businesses must continue to look for opportunities in markets in China, and across Asia and the Pacific. It could be that, over time, President Trump sees why it’s valuable to maintain strong trade ties with
FT-feb2017 digi-1
To see the actual publication please follow the link above